CS Researcher Takes on H1N1

In preparation for the coming months of flu season, Sheldon Jacobson, professor and director of the Simulation and Optimization Laboratory at the University of Illinois, argues that the number of cases of H1N1 may be significantly higher than predicted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  

According to Jacobson, the amount of effort and cost required to make vaccines and other medical supplies available to the public will be far greater than anticipated.  

Moreover, he posits that the logistical undertaking of containing this virus, fearfully referred to as the “swine flu,” will involve flexible, unorthodox thinking that healthcare workers and officials will be unable to perform alone. 
Jacobson does not specialize in vaccine development, nor does he hold a degree in medicine.  So how is he able to make these predictions?

“Quite often, the greatest advances occur at the cusps between two fields,” said Jacobson in an interview.  “It’s when you take a methodology from one field and you apply it to solve problems in other fields.”

Jacobson’s field is Operations Research (OR for short).  OR is a combination of a multitude of tools, including aspects of engineering, computer science, mathematical modeling and algorithms, and statistical analysis.  It also utilizes tactics like probability theory, game theory, decision analysis, and simulation to find optimal solutions to complex problems. OR’s countless applications have led Jacobson to conduct research in areas as far-flung as aviation security, automobile fuel consumption, NCAA basketball tournaments, and predictions for presidential elections.  

Jacobson’s involvement with the system of healthcare in the United States began as a serendipitous opportunity he chose to pursue.  Approached by a representative of the CDC at a conference, he was told that the government agency could “use his help.”  According to Jacobson, he “easily could have forgotten about [the interaction].”  Acting upon what can now be said to have been excellent foresight, he followed up with the meeting, leading to what has now become a collaborative and fruitful relationship that has lasted since 1996.

Jacobson admits that he knew nothing at the time about vaccines or immunization, but that it took years of study, collaboration with the CDC, and required learning about immunization from its very foundation to become familiar with the necessary terminology and processes.  Now, he says, when he talks to physicians and healthcare providers, they often embrace him as one of them.  (For example, at the National Immunization Conference last April, Jacobson was the only nonmedical person to present his research.)  

There is a marked benefit of such academic cross-pollination, said Jacobson:

“The challenge is that often, people who know the problems don’t have the tools to solve them, and the people who have the tools to solve them don’t understand the problems,” he said.  

According to Jacobson, the ability to cross the boundaries between healthcare and mathematics, computer science, and engineering has been a key to the success of his research.  

“When one does research, it is an opportunistic situation,” said Jacobson.  “You are constantly bombarded with challenges in life and society,” adding that “there are wonderful problems that can be addressed by using engineering, computer science, and specifically, operations research.”

With flu season rapidly approaching, there are a multitude of uses for OR in aiding the healthcare community’s response to the H1N1 virus.  For example, on the issue of vaccine distribution: should people come to a central location to get it, or should it be distributed individually to them?

“If you bring people together, the transmission rate skyrockets,” said Jacobson.  As a result, there can be a tremendous amount of confusion involving the logistics and supply chain management of not only a vaccine, but also ancillary medical supplies like masks, gloves, and antiseptics.

“Anything that is happening over a very short period of time is difficult to respond to,” added Jacobson.  In the case of H1N1, it will be job of OR to keep the rate of transmission as low as possible over the coming months.

While certain tactics work better than others in pandemic situations, according to Jacobson, studies have been done which have suggested that the best way to limit the transmission of the disease is to keep people away from each other – a tactic aptly named “social distancing.”

“Much of our society can continue to operate without being in physical contact with each other because of the internet,” Jacobson said.  In a world built around the increasing dependency on social networking and digital forms of communication, the loneliest option – social distancing – may also be the best, and not quite as lonely as it used to be.

“It may socially be hurting us, but during a pandemic it’s helpful.  It’s a different angle,” Jacobson added.  And while it may be the job of operations researchers like Jacobson to look at these types of problems from angles not yet attempted, in the end his goal is a simple one.

“That’s what we do.  You get a lot of neat results, and you just try to make the world a better place.” 
 

To learn more about Professor Jacobson's research, visit:

• "Numbers Guy Tackles Security and Health Concerns", LiveScience
• "Emergency! Pandemic! ", INFORMS podcast